What a Realistic Path to AI Adoption in Africa Actually Looks Like
A conversation with Dr. Fola Adeleke on digital sovereignty, infrastructure, and startups
There’s no shortage of headlines about AI transforming African economies, from massive infrastructure investments to strategies promising rapid growth. At the same time, many countries are dealing with constraints like reliable electricity and affordability.
In this episode, Dr. Fola Adeleke, Executive Director of the Global Center on AI Governance, talks us through what a realistic path to AI adoption in Africa might look like.
Below is a transcript of the conversation.
Meenakshi Dalal:
Hello and welcome to the AI Elsewhere podcast. My name is Meenakshi Dalal and in this first episode, we’re going to ask a very big question about a very big part of the world. What does a realistic path to AI adoption in Africa actually look like?
What got me thinking about this was this steady drip of headlines. Projections that AI will add $1.2 trillion to the African economy by 2030. New national AI adoption strategy after new national AI adoption strategy. A continental initiative that’s taking an Africa-first approach to AI. Billion-dollar data center investments.
At the same time, many places across the continent are still managing more basic issues like clean water and reliable electricity. To me, that contrast begs the question, what’s realistic?
With the entire world racing to adopt AI as quickly as possible and African countries being no exception, what approach is actually going to move countries forward given some of their constraints?
To find out, I sat down with Dr. Fola Adeleke. He directs the Global Center on AI Governance and its African Observatory on Responsible AI.
Here’s our conversation.
Meenakshi Dalal:
Why don’t we start with a little bit of an overview for people who may not be familiar with this part of the world. Which African countries would you say stand out in AI conversations right now?
Four countries central to AI conversations
Fola Adeleke:
We’ve primarily zoned in on Nigeria, South Africa, Kenya, and to some extent Rwanda. Rwanda comes in because the President of Rwanda currently leads the Smart Africa Initiative. Nigeria, Kenya, and South Africa have been the countries of priority for most big tech institutions, largely for economic reasons and largely for geopolitical reasons.
South Africa has the most robust infrastructure on the continent in relation to AI. So the availability of infrastructure is one thing that drives that interest. Microsoft recently pledged AI infrastructure in South Africa. Google also opened its own cloud services hub within South Africa. Cassava Technologies intends to invest just under a billion dollars in partnership with NVIDIA on building the first Africa AI factory in South Africa. And the idea is that South Africa will serve as this infrastructure hub that services the rest of the continent.
Kenya’s own competitive advantage is their tech startup ecosystem. A lot of innovation in terms of AI has been led by Kenya. For a very long time Kenya had this nickname of being Africa’s own version of Silicon Valley.
And then Nigeria. Nigeria’s advantage is its youth bulge. It is the largest country on the continent so in terms of sheer numbers, your biggest market is always going to be Nigeria.
Meenakshi Dalal:
So broadly speaking, big companies are looking at South Africa for infrastructure, Kenya for its tech startups and Nigeria for its large consumer base. And then Rwanda comes in for policy leadership.
Let’s now zoom out to the rest of the continent. Can you give us an idea about what African policymakers are most concerned about right now?
Digital sovereignty and geopolitical pressure
Fola Adeleke:
Policymakers are preoccupied with this idea of digital sovereignty. But achieving this will be difficult given most countries heavily rely on external actors, including technology that has been developed by big tech firms elsewhere.
These countries, need to deal with how to stay away from being locked into geopolitical competition, including this broader US-China AI race. Some of these countries have Chinese-built infrastructure which US companies don’t want to use and so you risk this fragmentation, geopolitical fragmentation.
But their neutrality is not risk-free.
So diversification of partners is incredibly important for these countries if we are going to really fulfill this objective of digital sovereignty, which is not something that has been led solely by these four countries. It’s also been pushed by the African Union.
Meenakshi Dalal:
If I’ve understood correctly, on the one hand, African countries want to adopt AI technology at scale. On the other, depending on how they do it and whose models and which infrastructure they use, they can face consequences because of longstanding US-China tensions. And all of that makes digital sovereignty a very serious priority.
But how does that play out in practice? I mean, is it actually happening?
But their neutrality is not risk-free.
Fola Adeleke:
African ministers are saying the right thing around the need to centralize infrastructure because African economies on their own are too small to attract foreign investments. If you are truly going to fulfill this objective of digital sovereignty, you are better off speaking as one because banding together potentially gives you more leverage.
Conversations around cross-border data flows, making sure that your regulations are essentially in sync is something that African regulators are also increasingly speaking about. But I think it’s a different thing to actually claim that they are actively working towards this.
The African Union in its AI Strategy laid the groundwork for us to achieve some of these things. But we are yet to see the implementation plan so we can’t really speak to how African states are implementing this commitment for now. But I can certainly speak to how the private sector is trying to assist them.
Meenakshi Dalal:
How is the private sector trying to assist them?
Infrastructure gaps and uneven access
Fola Adeleke:
For example, there’s a growing subsea capacity on the continent, large subsea cable systems such as 2Africa, continent spanning projects that are meant to connect the entire continent. But in reality, the rural urban divide in most African countries is still quite significant.
African states are certainly not equal in their levels of infrastructure development or access to finance for building infrastructure. So to maximize the benefits of projects like 2Africa, policy interventions on digital inclusion are still needed to reduce affordability barriers.
Meenakshi Dalal:
So even with better connectivity, the rural-urban divide means the benefits won’t be felt equally. What has to change?
Fola Adeleke:
Some of these initiatives assume widespread internet penetration, reliable electricity, and affordable mobile broadband. But the major barrier, is the affordability of mobile devices. In some low-income countries, the retail cost of a smartphone can be as high as 70% of their average monthly income, compared to a global average of 25-26%.
Meenakshi Dalal:
Right, no matter how connected somewhere is, if people can’t afford a smartphone, that connectivity doesn’t mean very much. So are you saying that governments are getting ahead of themselves by focusing on AI investments?
Are governments getting ahead of themselves?
Fola Adeleke:
It makes sense that African countries are increasingly amending their digital transformation strategies to essentially prioritize AI investments because you are trying to chase the money, right?
And even though a lot of African countries still have some serious basic infrastructure problems you still want some kind of signaling to investors that you are aware of these new developments and you are open for potential investors.
You could also argue that some of these national AI strategies and ambitions of states is essentially putting the cart before the horse
Meenakshi Dalal:
Okay, so investments in AI aren’t necessarily premature, but it’s a matter of which ones countries are prioritizing. How would you suggest they move forward?
How local startups can drive AI adoption
Fola Adeleke:
Don’t get too excited about AI just yet. You still need to prioritize some of your basic infrastructure problems. The fact that you shouldn’t get too excited doesn’t mean there isn’t anything you shouldn’t be doing now. Rather focus on developing an enabling environment for your thriving and innovative tech startups.
So while I’m skeptical about having a national AI strategy where every single African country is saying that they want to be the leader, the leader of AI in Africa… focus on more concrete objectives.
Yes, infrastructure investment is very expensive. It’s going to take you several years to be able to build up your national grid capacity. But a simple thing like having a Startup Act and making sure that your tech startups can thrive by giving them access to financing, giving them tax relief, making sure that they’re protected in terms of foreign competition, giving them additional rights in terms of intellectual property. It helps in the meantime. It helps in the meantime. And then they start talking about bigger issues around data centers and things like that.
Meenakshi Dalal:
I don’t fully understand that part. How does focusing on tech startups push African countries ahead when it comes to AI?
Fola Adeleke:
Because if you’ve developed an ecosystem where your tech startups are thriving and your tech startups are attracting significant foreign investments, then that builds the economy as a whole.
You won’t find yourself in situations where your startup founders are selling up and leaving the continent. So you are creating new businesses, you are hiring locally and you are still bringing in significant foreign investments because the reality is when you are developing local solutions for local problems you can’t sell off.
So even if a foreign investor is keen, that technology has been developed for a specific local context…so they will just be investing in you to grow the business, right? And you’ve seen that happen successfully in Nigeria, for example, in Kenya as well, M-Pesa, that mobile money program, those are local solutions for local problems where there’s no risk of a company acquiring that and then all of this is transferred elsewhere.
African leaders, ministers keep saying this, “local AI, local AI, local AI.” If your local startup system is thriving, there will be increased appetite for more people to come into this system to build more innovative products. Local AI is truly supporting your startups.
Meenakshi Dalal:
You mentioned Startup Acts are an important policy solution. I see how that works for a country like Kenya, which is known for its tech startups. How does that translate to other African countries?
Fola Adeleke:
Across the continent there so many tech startups. And the African Union developed a Startup Model Law Framework. Not every country has a startup law. Nigeria has one. Tunisia was the first to have one. Other countries like Cote d’Ivoire Togo, Senegal, they now have Startup Acts. And the idea of a Startup Act really is to support that young ecosystem.
Meenakshi Dalal:
So the argument here is that the real path to adopting AI is to create the right conditions for tech startups to work on local problems. And more often than not, AI technology will be a part of those solutions. But of course, all that depends on money.
Funding and real-world AI innovations
Fola Adeleke:
I think one thing that we also need to recognize is that the funding landscape for AI is a little bit more diverse than what you would find in other industries. So if we are a tech startup where we are trying to develop a new local AI innovation that is going to improve access to healthcare or improve in education. Suddenly your funders are not just venture capitalists or private funders. You can potentially get financing for that from a foreign aid agency or from a foundation because of the social impact of innovation.
And the innovation is amazing. We have someone who developed voice to text chat bots to help illiterate, small businesses to develop finance sheets to access short-term loans in banks. I’ve seen innovation around using AI to protect women against gender-based violence. I’ve seen people stay on HIV treatment using AI technology. So the innovation is really exciting out there that has been developed by Africa-based startups.
Meenakshi Dalal:
I think that’s a wonderful note to leave it on.
We started this episode trying to understand what a realistic path for AI adoption in Africa might look like. And what I’m taking away from this conversation is that big ticket AI infrastructure projects may make more sense later. And in the meantime, creating the right conditions for local tech startups to thrive, especially ones using AI, may be the most beneficial path forward.
Thank you so much, Fola, for your time and perspective. And thank you for listening to the first episode of the AI Elsewhere podcast. More soon.
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Special thanks to Hasham Cheema for the original music and for mixing this episode.